How is the US economy performing, and where is the money flowing?

Curve

+1.01%

Caution

Twist steepening · long end +0.57pp, policy leg -0.26pp over 1y

Credit

2.66%

Caution

Steady (-0.08pp/90d), complacent

Real Rate

2.45%

Normal

Rising +0.34pp/90d

Policy

3.63%

Normal

On hold (+0.01pp/90d)

Output

+1.1%

Caution

3-mo pace +1.9% ann.

Labor

4.1%

Normal

Claims -8k/13w

Consumer

+1.7%

Caution

real spend +1.7%, sentiment weak, delinquencies elevated

Housing

+2.4%

Normal

Starts -13.5% y/y

Margin

+2.2pp

Stress

PPI +4.7% vs CPI +2.5%

Inflation

3.3%

Stress

core PCE 3.3%

Character

+0.8pp

Normal

mixed · energy +20%

Sectors

8/11

Stress

Industrials most squeezed

Dollar

-1.3%

Normal

AFE +1.2%, EME -3.6%

Valuation

+5.7%

Normal

above 10y average

Trade

-1.8pp

Caution

exports +9.3% vs imports +11.2%

Sector Impact

3 high-exp

Normal

Tech most exposed (55%)

Liquidity

Neutral

Caution

mixed conditions

Growth

Slowdown

Caution

late cycle

Margins

Neutral

Caution

margins stable

FX

Neutral

Normal

no FX earnings tilt

Long End

Watch

Caution

trimming XLC, XLK, XLU — most rate-sensitive

Concentration

44 names

Stress

index behaves like 44, was 95 in 2019

AI Capex

92%

Caution

$597bn, +68% y/y, of buyers' cash flow

Priced In

1 of 59

Caution

names above Cisco's 39%/yr 2000 bar

De-rating

36 of 59

Stress

AI names already 20% below own high