Top-down US macro · six-pillar pipeline

From macro to trading strategies

A top-down read on the US economy — from global liquidity and the business cycle, through margins and the dollar, down to sectors and individual stocks — to determine the best trading strategy for equities, bonds, and options.

Live data · updated Jun 30, 2026

01 Treasury & Rates Regime Monitor The bond-market read — is money tight or loose?
Curve
+0.64%
Normal
Stable (-0.05pp/90d)
last good · feed stale
Credit
2.75%
Caution
Tightening -0.41pp/90d, complacent
last good · feed stale
Real Rate
2.16%
Normal
Rising +0.16pp/90d
last good · feed stale
Policy
3.63%
Normal
On hold (-0.01pp/90d)
last good · feed stale
02 Growth Regime Monitor The business cycle — where are we in it?
Output
+1.7%
Normal
3-mo pace +2.8% ann.
last good · feed stale
Labor
4.3%
Normal
Claims rising +14k/13w
last good · feed stale
Consumer
+2.7%
Stress
sentiment weak, delinquencies elevated
last good · feed stale
Housing
-0.4%
Caution
Starts -8.7% y/y
last good · feed stale
03 Margins & Cost Channels The squeeze — who eats the inflation?
Margin
+3.6pp
Stress
PPI +6.4% vs CPI +2.8%
last good · feed stale
Inflation
4.2%
Stress
core PCE 3.4%
last good · feed stale
Character
+1.4pp
Caution
supply shock · energy +52%
last good · feed stale
Sectors
9/11
Stress
Industrials most squeezed
last good · feed stale
04 FX & Global Competitiveness The filter — headwind or tailwind?
Dollar
+1.0%
Normal
AFE +3.8%, EME -1.6%
last good · feed stale
Valuation
+4.9%
Normal
above 10y average
last good · feed stale
Trade
+3.4pp
Normal
exports +12.6% vs imports +9.1%
last good · feed stale
Sector Impact
3 high-exp
Normal
Tech most exposed (55%)
last good · feed stale
05 Sector Rotation Matrix The allocation — the regime decides the sectors
01 · Liquidity
Risk-On
Normal
credit easy, conditions loose
last good · feed stale
02 · Growth
Slowdown
Caution
late cycle
last good · feed stale
03 · Margins
Squeeze
Stress
PPI > CPI, margins compress
last good · feed stale
04 · FX
Neutral
Normal
no FX earnings tilt
last good · feed stale
06 Micro Equity Execution The lower level — which stocks, which structure?

Option Strategies · Live

Option Strategies

Six interactive simulations — covered calls, iron condors, straddles, butterflies, theta decay, and the gamma-theta trade-off — for expressing the macro view with defined risk.

Open dashboard →

CAPM & Factor Models · Live

CAPM & Factor Model Dashboard

Single-stock execution layer — CAPM and Carhart four-factor regressions across the S&P 500: market beta distributions, sector factor tilts, per-stock deep dives, factor performance, and an alpha screen.

Open dashboard →