How is the US economy performing, and where is the money flowing?

Curve

+0.92%

Normal

Bear steepening · long end +0.85pp/1y

Credit

3.40%

Normal

Widening +0.65pp/90d

Real Rate

2.65%

Normal

Rising +0.24pp/90d

Policy

3.88%

Caution

Hiking +0.25pp/90d

Output

+2.2%

Normal

3-mo pace +3.9% ann.

Labor

4.2%

Normal

Claims -6k/13w

Consumer

+2.6%

Caution

sentiment weak, delinquencies elevated

Housing

-3.2%

Caution

Starts -7.4% y/y

Margin

+2.4pp

Stress

PPI +5.0% vs CPI +2.6%

Inflation

3.7%

Stress

core PCE 3.1%

Character

+1.1pp

Caution

supply shock · energy +63%

Sectors

6/11

Stress

Industrials most squeezed

Dollar

+0.3%

Normal

AFE +1.5%, EME -0.8%

Valuation

+5.7%

Normal

above 10y average

Trade

-11.5pp

Stress

exports +10.7% vs imports +22.2%

Sector Impact

3 high-exp

Normal

Tech most exposed (55%)

Liquidity

Neutral

Caution

mixed conditions

Growth

Slowdown

Caution

late cycle

Margins

Squeeze

Stress

PPI > CPI, margins compress

FX

Neutral

Normal

no FX earnings tilt

Long End

Calm

Normal

duration not repricing — no tilt applied

Concentration

41 names

Stress

index behaves like 41, was 94 in 2019

AI Capex

92%

Caution

$597bn, +68% y/y, of buyers' cash flow

Priced In

2 of 59

Caution

names above Cisco's 39%/yr 2000 bar

De-rating

34 of 59

Stress

AI names already 20% below own high